How will the potential third class medical elimination affect the light sport economy

[Micro Mong Bldr]

There are good reasons for LSA even if the category didn't exist. LSA are fun to fly, good for short fields, economical to own, and burn little fuel. If that were not the case, why would there be so many J3 Cubs, Champs, and Taylorcrafts around, lovingly restored and cared for? Yes, when the light sport regs came out it boosted the resale value of Champs and Cubs, but the values weren't bad before. Resale of LSA may drop a bit for a while but as fuel prices continue to inch up the interest will return. Where else are you going to cruise on 2 1/2 or 3 gallons an hour?

Larry

[av8rps]

Remember gang, when Avid and Kitfox were at their all time high for selling kits, there was no such thing as Sport Pilot. Those two companies had satisfied a need that many had to own a fun, safe, versatile, and practical airplane that they could afford to buy, and fly often. I remember trying to get up close to the Avid Flyer prototype at Oshkosh in 1983, and the crowds around it were so big I could barely get to see it. Apparently I wasn't the only guy that wanted to own my own plane, but didn't have a lot of money to spend. People wanting to fly, but not having big budgets to do it is what built companies like Avid and Kitfox.

So while companies like Avid and Kitfox grew, Cessna and Piper sales only went deeper in the tank because operational costs had become too high, not to mention the cost to obtain those aircraft. I seem to recall in the mid to late 80's, early 90's when Avid and Kitfox couldn't keep up and were collectively producing approx 90 kits a month between them, that the ANNUAL TOTAL for factory built single engine aircraft were something like only 90 airplanes.

So just Avid and Kitfox were selling more kits PER MONTH than all of the General Aviation factories together were selling in a year! Why was that? Simple...economics. Unless we have a fantastic economy, or they figure out how to build things for 1/10th the cost, people won't have enough disposable income for luxury items like factory made airplanes. And the same economic issues exist today, and are actually worse. Not everyone can afford a factory built Cessna, Piper, Cirrus, Mooney, etc. And the cost of operations (like fuel) are higher than ever these days, and it is likely that the avgas replacement will be even more. So owning and operating a GA type aircraft will still be cost prohibitive for many. Probably the majority. So just like we continue to see experimental aircraft flourish, I doubt you will see a company like Kitfox be hugely affected in their core business, which is kit sales.

Ok, so how about the Kitfox SLSA product? Using Kitfox as a good example, you can buy a new base model Kitfox factory built for around 100k. For comparison I just received my latest Plane and Pilot magazine with a feature on the new Mooney, and it's base price is 699K (gulp...) Now granted, there are more comparable aircraft like say a Husky or maybe a Maule, but the bottom line is you will need LOTS of additional cash to buy the Husky or Maule. Or 7 times the amount should you decide to buy a Mooney. And then you also need to consider the much higher operating costs of the more expensive airplanes.

A good example is a friend of mine with a Husky on amphib floats. He has somewhere near 250k in his USED Husky amphib, whereas my Model IV Kitfox on amphibs is probably worth 1/5th that amount. Yet I can do pretty much everything that Husky can do, while burning about 4 gallons an hour of car gas compared to his 10 gallons per hour of expensive AVgas (and the only way to fold the wings on the Husky usually involves high speeds and trees ). Even if we were comparing a new Kitfox SLSA to a used later model GA type aircraft, the Kitfox will be much more affordable. And the fun factor difference? Well, all of you know how much fun our planes are, so I won't even go into that here.

Overall I think companies like Kitfox will be fine when they eliminate the 3rd class medical. John and Deb have a really conservative attitude about running a business, and have refused to get into that whole "Build it and they'll come, high overhead mentality". So they don't have to sell 20 factory built Kitfoxes a month, and an additional 40 kits to make ends meet. They have kept there operation reasonably sized and lean, and in the process have done the best possible to ensure long term survival.

With all that said, I would be concerned about the LSA companies that do not sell their plane as a kit, and will need to sell a large number of expensive aircraft every month just to pay their bills. Icon may be a good example of that. But in their defense, they have a product not available in General Aviation. The last time I looked at the price of a new Lake Amphibian, it was 1.2 million dollars. So based on that, the Icon looks like a pretty sweet deal...

[jtpitkin06]

My predictions:
Light sport pilot certifications will continue as an entry level certificate. Litlle or no change.
Fewer current aircraft owners will drop out of aviation creating a higher demand for GA aircraft under 6000 pounds. I expect used single engine aircraft prices to rise.
More light sport pilots will upgrade to PPL to fly aircraft with more load capability. Plus size pilots will move to larger aircraft. Many wannabe pilots are just too large to fit in an LSA and fly legally. A PPL with no medical is just what is needed.
Little or no change to aircraft kit demand. Most builders buy kits for the building experience.
The kit market will see a shift to aircraft with higher performance and MGTOW over 1320 pounds. The Kitfox SS7 with MGTOW of 1550 fits into this market.
Current kits will see larger selection of engines and props as weight increases.
Lycoming will sell more of the O-233 engines and larger sizes.
Rotax may take a hit in the US market.
That’s just my prediction… but I could be wrong.
John P

[redbowen]

You can work on any airplane, but you still need a mechanic to sign off the annual or condition inspection, unless 1) it is an ELSA and you took the repairman course or 2) you built 51% of your experimental in both cases you qualify as the repairman for that particular N# airplane and can sign off the annual/condition inspection.

Considering you can buy an LSA already built and take a weekend course to get your repairman certificate and truly do your own maintenance, I would say that still makes the LSA a unique and valuable category.

[Av8r3400]

In order to do the 16 hour class and do your own inspections, the aircraft must be certificated as E-LSA and be owned by you. Remember, not all experimental, amateur built LS eligible aircraft are certificated as E-LSA. Actually quite few are. There was a short window which closed in 2007 mostly allowing for "fat" ultralights to become legal. A few experimental planes were registered in this window (like mine) and qualify. Most do not.

An S-LSA (factory built) aircraft does not qualify for that criteria. You must take the 120 hour class and become a Light Sport Repairman with the Maintenance rating or be an A&P (I don't believe IA is required). This is usually more of a commitment than most owners choose.

[HighWing]

All good comments but I thought of a couple of other ideas. Regarding the E-LSA - those who built and registered at 1320 instead of the 1550 might take a hit on resale value due to the load limits, i.e two similar 7s, for example, side by side. One E-LSA, one EAB. Would you go for the 1320 or the 1550 gross wt. S-LSA - I suspect something of the same sort. Some loss of value as non builder buyers will likely opt for the higher gross previously owned experimental market. vs. the limited gross airplanes. Lots of variables to be sure.

[Av8r3400]

Lowell, your example isn't a good one, IMO. Given the choice between two Model 7s, one 1550 gross and one certificated E-LSA (impossible btw), is a very easy choice.

The E-LSA allows for the buyer to become, with the 16 hour class, not only the maintainer but also the inspector.

The 1550 gross plane requires the buyer to pay for the inspection services.

Additionally we all know that the 1550 gross is nothing but a paper change. So that difference is moot.

So the choice goes easily to the theoretical E-LSA model 7.

[HighWing]

Lowell, your example isn't a good one, IMO. Given the choice between two Model 7s, one 1550 gross and one certificated E-LSA (impossible btw), is a very easy choice.

Larry,
You caught my typo. I guess I should have written 1550 EAB. Interesting point on the annual condition inspection. I hadn't thought of that mainly because most of the second owner experimental guys I know will do a thorough inspection themselves prior to the official visit, correcting any squawks. The Airplane is then presented open and ready and the reassembly is done by the owner as well. This greatly reduces their costs vs. certified. Also the biggest cost of a Certified Airplanes Annual Inspection - based on listening to my friends here - is paying for the squawks that the AI Finds that the owner cannot legally repair himself.

What I was referring to is the relative value regarding payload. I fully understand the structural limits and the safety margins. But there is no question that if the guy assembling the S-LSAs for the factory decided to build for himself an EAB version of the same airplane resulting in exactly the same empty weight, same quality, same everything. The additional payload would be very attractive to a lot of pilots out there. And I suspect that with the waiver of the III Class Medical requirement - which we are discussing - it would bring many like me back into the potential market - those holding Private Pilot certificates but currently flying under Sport Pilot rules. Many of us chose to fly Sport Pilot because of the concern for the potential of having to deal with a failed medical. Eliminate that from the equation and we are all back to bigger and faster. Your observation would be totally valid if both airplanes were displayed for sale at a Sport Pilot gathering, but I suspect that at Oshkosh or on Barnstormers, the 1550 gross weight airplane would look really really attractive. Would it cut into S-LSA sales? Probably not a lot, but, in today's market how much is too much.