I think your logic only applies to golden age aircraft when the cowl is a carefully designed NACA cowl, as in your examples. Until the invention of the NACA cowl, water-cooled designs were generally faster.
The concept of the NACA cowl is to create enough jet boost from the cowl exits to overcome the radial's frontal area. It squeezes the cooling air to increase its velocity after heating, much like a jet does. The combination of the jet boost plus the radial's lighter weight gives better performance, which is why radials ruled for most of the golden age despite their frontal area.
The Kitfox bumpy cowl is definately not a NACA cowl, and I doubt that a 125 HP radial would fit inside it anyway. But if it did, it would be an interesting question, since in that case both alternatives would be suffering the same frontal area penalty. Maybe the radial would be faster, since it has more power and can swing a bigger prop. Or that gain could be offset by the weight penalty, which would cause the angle of attack to increase. It would be an interesting experiment.